How to conduct business in a crisis
Crisis as an environment for construction
Public conversation about the market almost always follows one route. Cuts, falling budgets, uncertainty, postponed plans. This gives the impression that the correct behavior in such an environment is to freeze decisions.
However, for food companies, the crisis works differently. It not only reduces demand. It changes the structure of costs, the availability of talent and the speed of work. It is these three factors that determine whether the moment is suitable for construction.
When the information background becomes completely disturbing, the decision to develop often looks like a risk. In fact, risk can be symmetrical. Losing time in the phase when construction has become cheaper also has a price.
Markets are cyclical. In the recession phase, the number of investment deals and advertising budgets decreases, but the competition for efficiency increases and the cost of resources decreases.
Most products do not enter the market at the time of construction, but after it. Therefore, the real question is not the current background, but what state the company will be in when the cycle turns.
Technological shifts like AI are changing the economics of development. They reduce time on typical tasks and transfer competitive advantage to the plane of product design, data and distribution.
Why intuitive assumptions can lead in the wrong direction
A common assumption is that a crisis is a period when activity should be reduced. This is logical for costs without return. For investments in a product, the logic is different, since the costs and terms of value creation do not coincide in time.
The second mistake is to perceive the availability of resources as a temporary accident. If development becomes cheaper because of market conditions and faster because of tools, it is no longer noise. This is a change in basic parameters.
The third mistake is related to the idea that speed decides everything. In fact, in a downturn, it is easier to create a product, but more difficult to create a demand. This increases the value of correct formulation of the problem and positioning.
During a recession, the availability of strong professionals increases as some companies downsize or freeze hiring.
A decrease in the cost of development is often accompanied by an increase in ROI requirements, which reinforces the role of product discipline and prioritization.
AI reduces the time it takes to complete repetitive tasks, but it doesn’t replace decisions about what to build and how to sell it.
How the construction decision is actually made
A rational decision to build in a crisis is not based on optimism. It relies on asymmetry. If the costs of creating a product have decreased and the target market remains, there is an opportunity to prepare for the recovery phase cheaper and faster.
Companies that move into crisis don’t usually do so by making big bets. They do a series of controlled iterations where each successive one depends on demand signals rather than internal belief.
Good: The team builds in short cycles, checks demand and keeps costs tied to market signals.
Bad: the team either completely stops development or spends the budget without a clear value hypothesis and exit channel.
Where failures happen most often
The first failure occurs when reduced development costs are perceived as a reason to build more. In a crisis, the winner is usually not the one who does more, but the one who chooses more precisely what to do.
The second failure is related to the fact that AI is confused with strategy. The tool can accelerate execution, but does not define product logic, segment and distribution.
The third failure is lateness. If we wait for the full return of the green background, the competition returns with it, but already with the teams that prepared earlier.
During a downturn, small bets with clear hypotheses, where success is determined by a measurable demand signal, work best.
It is advisable to convert the reduction in the development cost not into the scale, but into the quality of the solution, the speed of verification and the number of training cycles.
AI should be used as a tool to reduce time for typical tasks, leaving key decisions in the area of product and market thinking.
“The crisis does not create advantages by itself. It reduces the price of error for those who know how to quickly test hypotheses,” — Iryna M., Product Director
Formulate the value hypothesis and the segment for which it is critical.
Determine the minimum product that will give a demand signal.
Build a short review cycle with measurable success criteria.
Optimize development through AI where the task is repeatable and standardized.
Fix the scaling decision point after the first confirmation of demand.
Conclusion without finalization
The crisis reinforces two realities simultaneously. It increases uncertainty on the demand side, but reduces construction costs on the supply side. It is this asymmetry that sustains the rational logic of development in a difficult period.
When it is easy, many players enter the market and the expressway is made by expensive channels and speed of spending. When it is difficult, those who are able to build in a disciplined manner, with a check of demand and with preparation for the next cycle, get the advantage.